Smartgambler AFL Package

        2015 season For pricing or payment follow the 'CLick Here' links below.

Thank you for your interest in this service. Professor Stephen Clarke's expertise in computer exploitation of sports statistics will give you a realistic chance at being a long term winner on AFL football betting, as shown by his simulated test results from the system over four full seasons from 1997 to 2000 using the aggressive Kelly System of staking.

The AFL betting market was still relatively immature back in 2000, and this spectacular level of returns is obviously not going to be maintained in the long term, but it does show the potential of computer modeled statistical attacks for gaining a betting edge over the bookmakers.

Use of Professor Clarke's system in real life betting subsequent to his four year testing period has also been profitable, as numerous e-mails in our AFL testimonials section bear witness. In most cases the authors of material in the testimonials section can still be contacted if required. Note that we are no longer adding new testimonials, as it has been pointed out to us that many testimonials on the internet are invented, leading to well founded cynicism about such offerings. We do permit potential purchasers to contact current members before joining in cases where there appears to be genuine interest.

Here is Stephen Clarke's chart from his four year testing phase.

An example of how this package can help you profit on AFL betting was provided in round 3 of the 2006 season, when Hawthorn played away against hot favourites, Geelong at Skilled Stadium.

The computer assessed the match as 82.9% to 17.1% in favour of Geelong, but at $7.00 with one bookmaker instead of the assessed 'fair price' of $5.85, the computer flagged a 19.7% pricing overlay on Hawthorn. On this basis, our clients were effectively advised to back Hawthorn as a value bet. Hawthorn actually did win in a big upset, but that isn't the point. The point is that positive expectation, or positive value bets (by definition) win over time.

Smartgambler AFL Package 2015

Currently includes

1. Computer prediction of the nine winners.
   
   
2. Computer prediction of winning margins.
   
   
3. Computer's assessment of the correct price for each match. (eg. Fremantle should pay $2.75)
   
   
4. Early notification by e-mail of teams that look like being excellent bets for that round, based on the assessed price compared to bookies odds.
   
   
5. Suggested relative percentages of your bank to bet according to the mathematically based Kelly system, if you should choose to use that system.
   
   
6. Arbitrage alert. (Forced win by backing both sides at best odds.)
   Spreadsheet cell turns red and gives the percentage of the arbitrage.
   
   
7. Spreadsheet contains margin betting calculations on each match for finding value margin bets.
   
   
8. Weekly updates of the computer's assessed odds of each team finishing in any given position after the home and away season based on the remaining draw for each team, for futures betting.
   
   
9. Access to Australia's highest profile sports statistician, Professor Stephen Clarke, for questions and support.
   
   
10. Private 'insiders' club for communication between members on best odds updates, arbitrages, support, ideas and discussion.