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Introduction

I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use.

Galileo Galilei

In this advice section of Smartgambler we will try to expose some of the common misconceptions that lead to the very poor rate of return that Australian (and overseas gamblers too) achieve on average.

As stated on our index page, the odds are stacked against punters in most gambling activities and in these cases it would be better not to play, but that still doesn't explain why gamblers consistently lose far more than the odds dictate that they should.

For example, land based casino profits from Blackjack have been estimated as almost 2% on turnover, and much higher for really bad players. Yet correct basic strategy, without card counting, should only yield the house a 0.5% advantage. Punters are giving roughly four times more money to the casino than they need to for their blackjack entertainment, considering that basic strategy for Blackjack can be memorised in under an hour.

A poor grasp of basic probability theory and an unwillingness to discard superstition and replace it with a hard nosed statistical approach to gaming is one of the main causes behind this debacle.

Your presence here on Smartgambler most likely indicates a wish to exercise intelligence and skill in your gambling activities and we applaud you for that. The following pages will reinforce what you probably already know, that knowledge, logic, common sense and discipline are the paths to better gambling returns, not blind reliance on lady luck.

Next Probability Theory

 


 

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