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Newsletter 05
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Sunday
25th June 2006 OZmium
Pty Ltd 091 184 655
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Edited by Guy West
Welcome to the fifth Smartgambler
newsletter.
See below for our new
FREE memberships to the Cricket
and Rugby Union packages.
What an interesting couple of months
it's been since the last newsletter. An abundance
of sport to bet on, with lots of good Cricket, Tennis,
Rugby League, Australian Rules, Rugby Union and now
Soccer to bet on.
Nadal won the French Open emphatically
at short odds to reinforce the strange situation where
taking on the tournament favourite either on clay
or any other surface in tennis just seems to lose
you money these days. For a while it appeared that
Federer was getting close to providing a genuine challenge
to Nadal on clay, but the morale sapping loss in 5
sets after holding match points earlier this year
appears to have dented Federer's belief that he can
beat the Spaniard and the French final turned into
something of a rout once Nadal hit his stride.
Wimbledon should be good this
year. I'll be particularly watching the talented Tomas
Berdych to see if he can take a step forward after
looking a possible challenger to Federer's dominance
last year. Hewitt fans will be optimistic after
he won Queens yet again, but personally I don't like
the odds on offer.
World Cup soccer hasn't provided
the rich vein of underdog victories it sometimes does.
The often underrated African nations haven't caused
as many upsets as usual, with Ghana being the
only one to really exceed expectations. The Socceroos
have surprised some but haven't really achieved a
big upset result yet, the impressive aspect of their
performance has been more the standard of their play
and fighting spirit than any individual scoreline.
For big upsets, AFL football
has ruled again this season, but not necessarily to
the benefit of punters. The extremely unpredictable
nature of the past two seasons, which would normally
see a lot of value, has actually proved a real headache
due the apparent lack of rhyme or reason in many of
the boilovers. Results like the out of form Hawks
beating the highly rated Cats by 8 goals in Geelong
earlier in the season left everybody scratching their
heads. NRL has also stayed unpredictable this
season and finding the value seems to be getting harder
there as well.
Poker machines are back in
the news again, with much being made of the Victorian
government's $1 billion tax haul from the ubiquitous
machines. Watching the various parties line up strictly
according to self interest is an amusing exercise
for the cynic. With the licensing under review next
year Tattersalls and Tabcorp think the existing duopoly
should be kept, with Tatts actually lobbying for more
pokies. The Australian Hotels Association also wants
more, with every Victorian hotel being permitted at
least 5. Racing Victoria also wants more machines,
but a break up of the duopoly and surprise, surprise,
the Woolworths/Mathieson ALH group also wants the
duopoly busted. Social and church groups are needless
to say appalled at the suggestion of an increase and
want the number slashed.
OZmium
News
Cricket
and Rugby Union
free memberships!
Our previous Cricket expert Damien O moved to Qld
for employment reasons and was unable to continue
running the group.
Our new Cricket group leader is Mac.
Mac has many years of expertise in profitable Cricket
betting and should be well known to many of our clients
as he has been an active member of several of our
other betting packages over the years.
Professor Ray Stefani and Stefan
Yelas continue to provide expert Rubgy Union predictions
and handicapping.
OZmium has decided to try a new
model for providing these two betting packages.
To gain access to the private Cricket forum or the
private Rugby Union forum you need only open and fund
a new bookmaker account from the options provided.
They are all reputable and useful bookies offering
new account bonuses. Instead of charging membership
fees we will be relying on the bookmaker referral
commission for new accounts to make these groups viable.
For more information
on how to get access to the free
Cricket or Rugby Union groups click
here
MLB
US Major League
Baseball has been good for our group this season,
with our American handicappers producing a 23 unit
profit so far with plenty of action still to come.
Apart from normal pro rata memberships we
are once again offering our Pay for Profit
deal for big bettors with no up front fee and pay
only for profits made.
www.smartgambler.com.au/baseball/pay_cc.php
Industry News
Online
casino reneges on $1.3 million debt
According
to our new expert on casino games Dr Tristan Barnett,
there are plenty of possibilities for profitably attacking
online table games. But as the item above shows, greed
and a lack of attention to disguising your advantage
can kill the goose that laid the golden eggs. The
thought of someone with an edge in an online table
game actually contacting the casino to ask them to
increase their limits makes me shudder!
Quiz
machines
UK
style quiz machines such as JPM's Hangman and
Who wants to be a millionaire are appearing
in pubs and venues in Victoria. If anyone sees any
of these machines in other Australian states (or knows
the whereabouts of any) I'd be very interested in
hearing about them.
Poker
Only
a couple of months now to the World Series of Poker
in Las Vegas
and
online poker rooms are in a frenzy of WSOP package
giveaways. I have found several overlays already in
tournaments with the AUD $12,500 or more packages
up for grabs. This year's World Series looks likely
to once again smash all prizemoney records in the
emerging
sport. Once the field is established I will be taking
a close look at the odds for all the known contenders
and will try to find some value for our readers.
Anyone
interested in discussing poker is invited to e-mail
me, or you can visit our poker
forum
Help!
Programmer or spreadsheet expert required
We
are currently looking for someone to help with a project,
as per below. If
you're interested and have the skills required, please
contact guywest_at_ozmium_dot_com_dot_au and quote on price.
Description
of project:
One
of OZmium's business areas is selling information
packages to bettors. Typically these memberships are
1 year packages, but there are also seasonal or even
shorter packages that cover periods ranging between
3 to 7 months.
When
OZmium is paid for one of these information packages
the money is treated as bankable income. We can then
use it towards paying OZmium handicappers and other
contractors.
However,
the money from package sales is not really "earned"
at the moment of sale. That membership becomes a liability
in that it has to be serviced, otherwise a portion
of the money, depending on how far into the membership
we are, has to be refunded.
A
responsible way of conducting business would be for
OZmium to know at all times exactly the amount of
financial liability it faced if all membership packages
were no longer able to be serviced and had to be refunded
pro rata, dependent on how much of the membership
remained. (For example, a 365 day membership which
cost $365 and had already been serviced for 6 months
would constitute a liability of $182.50c.)
What
we would like is a spreadsheet or computer program
that, if given the membership data, would calculate
our total liability so that we could have roughly
that amount set aside at any given time in a special
account.
The
program would have at least the following data fields.
Date
of purchase
Amount paid
Date of expiry
The
program would need to "know" (or be told by the user)
the current date and be able to calculate from that
how many days of liability remained on each package
and what figure that comes to in dollar terms at the
differing daily values of the various packages.
Letters
from subscribers
If you have anything interesting to
share, feel free to write a short e-mail to me and
I will publish it here.
Quote
of the day
A man's gotta make at least one bet
a day, else he could be walking around lucky and never
know it.
Jim Jones
OZmium
forums
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