AFL football betting
testimonials
2003 season
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-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 19 August 2003 2:10 AM
Subject: Thanks Everyone
Some comments on the value of this AFL Insiders
network.
The alert that went out last Thursday from Mac regarding
the Crows players is a classic example of the value
of this network of punters. Unfortunately, I'd already
put my money on the Crows after following the overlay,
and got odds of $2.07 on the Crows. I have the emails
sent to my home address, not my work address and was
not made aware of the news until I checked the Crows
odds around 3pm and they'd moved to about $2.45. By
then the news was on the AFL website and it was common
knowledge. From now on, I'll get the emails sent to
my work address, too so I don't miss out next time.
This is the third great tip I've got from the group,
the others being the Subiaco hangover factor in about
Round 4, well before others were alerted to it, and
the historical bias against big overlays.
I think if everyone structures their bets after consideration
of the tips given by members then you are likely to
do well because the tips are derived from people with
different skills, insights, and sources of information,
thus you are able to construct a betting portfolio
derived from many diversified strategies.
The messages from the group alone have been worth
the subscription, so thanks everyone for your contributions
- and keep them coming.
Happy punting. D2.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 21 July 2003 10:24 PM
Subject: Re: An Interesting week
Guy,
My 2 'future's, WCE for the 8 at 1.70 and Sydney
at 2.20 are both well in the money, thanks to TinHead's
early predictions. I took them around Rds 5-7.
I am not sure that 1.30 on Essendon or Freo will
entice me. Maybe 1.75 or 2.25 on North or Hawthorn,
but I agree with you, neither of them deserve a bet.
I am also on top of my comp due to an accumulated
margin of 482. I think that I will stick to Kelly,
but the interstate home sides in multis have been
good also.
Not a great season so far, but 10.4% on turnover
is still a profit! Had 13/20 winning rounds last year,
and this year I'm 9/15, which is pretty much the same
ratio.
Maybe the last 6 rounds will be winners, since TinHead
is getting better every week.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 19 July 2003 9:53 PM
Subject: Thanks James
Credit where it is due. Great call James on the Bombers.
I am an Essendon supporter and though I was cursing
myself for following you in early on, that was a good
win and confidently predicted at good odds. Your points
turned me from actually being keen on the Lions to
having a good bet at the $2.65, after $3.00 was bet.
With Port cruising and a nice overlay win on the
Hawks, as well as a little of the Swans at $1.35 on
Tuesday (and they started about $1.22), this round
is turning into a massive one.
Can only hope that Geelong and Freo follow the script
tomorrow.
Cheers, Blair.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 14 July 2003 8:12 AM
Subject: Whatta Weekend
Well, a memorable weekend for me, with 4 winners
from 4 big overlay bets in Crows, Swans, Lions and
Kangaroos being a nice little bonus, with the real
joy being spending the weekend at the birth of my
first child, Lachlan Thomas, a big healthy 9lb 4 fellow.
With the form the computer has struck over the last
week and a half, best I start sussing out private
schools this morning...
Mac.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 11 July 2003 10:39 PM
Subject: Go Crows
What a great start to the round, with the massive
overlay on the Crows saluting and what with being
a home interstate team and all, it seems in hindsight
like such a generous price we got. May this be the
start of a massive round, as still have Lions, Kangas,
Pies and Swans to follow.
I think the computer was spot on here and it's suggested
price was far closer to reality than what the bookies
offered. Those indoor wins at Colonial over Saints
and Cats meant little at Footy Park in the rain.
Who was that fool who questioned Tinhead last week?
Surely not me...
Mac.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 10 June 2003 9:16 AM
Subject: RE: Best Round Ever!
Ran some stats off from my info this season and this
is how I see it. This is based on a flat staking plan
to win $ 1,000 per bet ( I don’t bet Kelly ).
>5% overlays, > 56% probability
16 bets, $ 10,982 profit, +19.5% profit on turnover
>5% overlays, < 56% probability
19 bets, $ 7,725 profit, +43.4% profit on turnover
>5% overlays, all probabilities
35 bets, $ 18,707 profit, +25.2% profit on turnover
Based on the above stats, whats happened this season
is as follows : the large overlays >15% have performed
only ok across all price ranges. This was also the
case last season. If you simply bet the large overlays
( > 15% ), you wouldn’t have much return for your
efforts this season or last season.
The smaller overlays in the 5-15% range have done
well across all price ranges. Last season they also
did well, but mainly for the favourite teams only
.
This season, non-favourite teams have done especially
well in this area and have done far better than favourite
teams ( 43.4% POT as against 19.5% POT )
Hence, the go this season to date has been to back
the smaller Swinburne overlays for all teams ( favourites
and dogs ) . If you restrict yourself to favourites
only, some of the most profitable bets this season
have been overlooked.
K.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 7 June 2003 9:02 AM
Subject: Credit Due
Let's give Tinhead a rousing cheer. Prediction of
Kangaroos to win by three points, spot on... Let's
hope the rest of the round is as accurate.
Was on the Kangas (at the 2.03) and am also on Crows
and Geelong. I will wait until a little later this
afternoon before jumping on the Swans (hoping for
a few extra cents).
Well done Tinhead, long may it continue.
Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 3 June 2003 10:24 PM
Subject: Re: Round 11
How I went Rd 10:
Full Kelly on Port and Kangas, declined Brisbane
at 1.17 and decided just 1/4 Kelly on Hawks in the
end.
Overall good round, 44% profit on bets.
Also took PA/Frem (-8.5) / Bris (-9.5) multi at 2.20.
As for this week, Adel / Sydney, / Port / Geel and
maybe Coll.
Full Kelly on them, except will think about Sydney.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 22 May 2003 2:17 PM
Subject: Re: Round 9 thoughts.
I really appreciate the commentary each week as well.
Keep up the informative work!
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 19 May 2003 10:25 AM
Subject: Onya Tinhead
Well, this season has been a bit topsy turvy, with
tipsters and Tinhead suffering from low batting averages,
but looks like form is starting to settle down with
Tinhead getting a terrific 7/8!
Wagers on the Bombers, Port, Tigers, Lions and Freo
got me back from 14% down, to 3% up. My home grown
'profit protection' strategy has so far returned 28%
of initial capital, which has reduced the risk/reward
ratio of wagering full Monty by quite a bit.
C'mon round 9!
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 17 May 2003 6:11 PM
Subject: Sydney v Geelong
AFL Team, a contact I have has rang today letting
me know ahead of time that Mick O'Loughlin won't be
playing tomorrow.
This should shorten Geelong I would think. If this
is any any help to anyone please use it to your best
advantage. The source is normally very reliable (was
on the coaching staff of North a couple of seasons
ago)
Regards, PJ.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 17 May 2003 5:51 PM
Subject: PIES
Tinhead's overlays are doing well.
Well done to those who backed West Coast.
CM. (Pies supporter)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 15 May 2003 9:19 AM
Subject: RE: Thought round 7 was good
Glenn, thanks for your thoughts … always good to
have another analysis, so we can all take out a bit.
Won’t push the barrow anymore here, but offer the
these last bits:
the draw on the Kangaroos at $ 3.25 in round 3 was
actually a winning bet, as most would have got half
face value or at worst money back (voided).
Staking $1,000 would have returned $1,625 for a profit
of $625, not a loss of $1,000. Would make quite a
difference Kelly betting to the end result. This bet
was one second away from an even better win, as the
Lions got a behind on the final siren.
The wild ride comes from Full Kelly staking, not
the underlying bets. Generally you get an even wilder
ride Kelly staking a 'favourites only' system.
All prices were obtained … there were even better
prices available. The best indicator of performance
is profit on turnover. Most backers of all overlays
this season should be sitting near 25%, an incredibly
good result after 7 rounds.
The fact that Tinhead has only tipped 56% of winners,
who cares … with a POT figure of 25%, give me this
anyday. However, I imagine 56% winners may be as low
as it gets and 25% POT as high as it gets.
I’d be even happier if Tinhead dropped below 50%,
so long as the POT went up even further. It’s not
about tipping winners, but loading up on value bets.
Bet 30 (the final bet) on Adelaide put a big dent
in the bank with a Full Kelly bet. Bank would have
more than doubled, possibly tripled before that bet
I would have thought.
In the end, there is not enough information this
season or last season to assess what is the “best”
system to use for the remainder of this season. It
comes down to personal preferences, opinions and judgements.
We will all know at the end of this season what was
the “best” system for the 2003 season.
Your analysis this season has been great. It's got
me concentrating on looking at figures more and more.
K.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 12 May 2003 3:57 PM
Subject: RE: Thought round 7 was good (and bizarre)
What a weekend. I just broke out in
fornt, small wager on Roos (Quarter kelly), and Half
Kellys on Saints and Crows.
Placed all my bets on Friday so I missed
out on the Richmond "blow" when I was looking for
them. Bit annoyed that I didn't back Richmond or Sydney,
but available odds dictated.
Season so far, up 14.3 % on turnover
and up 25.1% on base.
James.
(Excerpt from longer e-mail.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 9 May 2003 10:16 PM
Subject: Kanga's
A great start to the weekend, as the $2.55 Kangaroos
produces a 25% overlay and a great result. Just goes
to show again how these late plunges, often caused
by player withdrawals or factors that Tinhead does
not register, simply go towards generating value for
the unfancied team rather than firming in a favourite
for any specific reason other than weight of (mug?)
money.
Now let's hope my new profession, being betting against
Collingwood for a living, continues to pay the wages
this weekend.
Mac.
(It's back to serving Big Macs for Mac, as the
Pies won on the last kick!)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 27 April 2003 9:37 PM
Subject: Re: Profit?
Attached are the results after 5 rounds of the "56%
win chance / 5% overlay" betting system. I do
not believe that there is enough data for a reasonable
assessment, but the % win and average bet price is
already consistent with last years results.
Some comments: There have been 12 wins from 17 bets
at 70.6% win rate. There have been more bets than
expected (12.4 bets), but using 2Flys (and some others)
sneaks a few extra bets in. The average price has
been 1.68. The 70.6% win is right where you would
expect (remember that one more win moves it to 76.5%)
The 1.68 price is slightly higher than what would
be expected (1.64), but I have had several bets at
2Flys at higher than general market prices.
The win is $270, seasonalized to $1,188, about half
of what would be expected. However, the 3 biggest
bets have all lost. With the win ratio about right
and the average price about right, then I would expect
over the course of the season that the win amount
will correct itself.
Kangas vs Carl ($421) PA vs Bris ($229) Rich vs WBD
($217) If you take the 2 interstate away teams (Frem
vs Kangas and Carl vs Port) out, then the results
are 11/15 wins for 73.3% $360 win for $1,584 seasonalized.
It is interesting to note that Fully Kelly on a
fixed bank (in this case $1,000) has returned the
better win result. For myself, I have been largely
following this. I saved a bit by getting Port vs Brisbane
at 3.91 (hence reduced my bet to get the 'right' profit
and took advice from James by only taking a Half Kelly
on Kangas vs Carlton instead of the Full Kelly. I
am doing after Round 5: 21% profit on turnover and
18% increase in my original starting bank.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 26 April 2003 7:18 AM
To: Guy West
Subject: Re: Soccer
Hi Guy.
Thanks for the quick response. Well, I just had
to find a good way of investing the winnings from
the AFL and Tennis packages! Anyway, thanks for doing
a great job in finding all these great packages.
David Chong.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 22 April 2003 3:18 PM
To: afl_insiders@ozmium.com.au
Subject: RE: Profit?
In round four I followed the "55%+ certainty,
5%+ overlay with no bets on
interstate away teams" system and got 40% profit
out of my three bets,
Brisbane, Adelaide and Richmond.
I'm also avoiding margin bets until I'm more confident
with it all. Maybe next year I'll look at those.
Adrian.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 22 April 2003 8:59 AM
Subject: AFL
Hi Guy.
Just wanted to let you know that I'm doing very well
with the betting system after just two weeks. I've
already more than recovered my initial
investment.
As a contingency, would it be possible to have emails
sent to two addresses? My work e-mail was down for
a few days last week and I was missing out on some
of the communication. If so, please also send to this
address.
Cheers, Boris.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 6 April 2003 5:23 PM
Subject: Great Round 2
Only one bet predicated this round by my system -
the Roos! But what a beaut win. Puts us up 118% for
the two rounds. Fantastic start to the season.
Max.
(Excerpt from a longer e-mail)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 2 April 2003 4:45 AM
Subject: QUICK BETFAIR QUERY
AFL Insiders,
Your input is invaluable. Well done and thanks.
Wayne.
(Excerpt from longer e-mail)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 2 April 2003 12:25 PM
Subject: RE: AFL
Guy,
I have been tied up this week, and have only just
processed my payment. Can you please expedite my set
up so that I can get cracking to win some
money. Last weekend was good.
Matt.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 2 April 2003 9:51 AM
Subject: Re: AFL
Hello Guy.
You bet I will be a returning member. Already made
a small fortune against the spread in week one. I'm
almost embarassed to talk about it, but it was more
than your entire season costs and I only played half
my normal bet size.
But I have a problem this week. I'm in the States
all week and can't access the home e-mail address
you have for communication. May I please have a copy
of this weeks mail-out to this address? Next week
will be back to normal.
Thanks, Jorgen.
-----Original Message-----
To: afl_insiders@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Re: Long Live Tinhead!
This has been a great thread, from a second season
member, thanks.
As from last seasons discussion, it's not strictly
possible to lose all of your bank with Kelly betting
because each subsequent bet is meant to have been
resolved before the next bet placed.
What do you guys do when two matches are played at
once?
Thanks to Tony's excellent ATP picks and last weeks
AFL & NRL my bank looks very solid. Too solid
in fact to leave in the bookies hands from match to
match. Do you take out a proportion of your winnings
each week/day & re-submit with your next bet etc?
Thanks in anticipation.
David.
Adelaide. Home of the Crows of course!
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 31 March 2003 12:16 PM
Subject: RE: Long Live Tinhead!
It sounds like most people are more than happy with
the first round results. I took the advice offered
and collected on the Kangaroos and Sydney. However,
being a first time subscriber I only backed them at
the TAB, where Sydney were $1.50 and the Kangaroos
about the same.
Reading the e-mails, I have now set up an account
at Betfair and was wondering if others, with more
experience than I, could suggest other accounts I
should be looking to set up.
While I am happy with my small collect, I would certainly
like to take advantage of the best odds available.
All suggestions greatfully received.
Cameron.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 30 March 2003 9:14 AM
Subject: RE: Long Live Tinhead!
Well done Mac!
At 78% up for the >55% bank you've made a killing.
I managed 66%.
However, it may pay to bear in mind that Tinhead
gets around 70% of
predictions correct - very good indeed - but it does
mean that we're due for
a loss sooner or later. Be prepared!
In the meantime though, I think a bottle of champers
is in order regardless.
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 30 March 2003 8:53 AM
Subject: Re: Long Live Tinhead!
Hear, hear.
I'm running more different banks than Skasey at his
peak and the data has
got them all off to a flyer.
My constant 1/2 Kelly bank is up 22%, my floating
3/4 kelly bank that
incorporates a "drip" of profits is up 35%,
my line betting bank on >10%
overlays and >60% win prob is 2 from 2 at $1.90,
and my >55% win probability and any overlay bank
is up a staggering 78% from the first 5 games. If
only it were always this easy..........
Only 2 bets today in the last bank, being Adelaide
and Melbourne (very small
bet), so round one is a guaranteed bonanza.
Whilst not counting any chickens, isn't it a nice
feeling to be betting with
profits rather than digging into the pocket?
May the information continue.
Mac.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 29 March 2003 11:12 PM
Subject: Re: Long Live Tinhead!
I'm with you, Max.
I stuck with Glenn's pre-season analysis and took
any team with a greater than 5% overlay and a 60%
chance of winning.
Collingwood at 1.60 (plus the 1.67 at Betfair), Kangaroos
at 1.70, (plus I took 2.00 at close to half time at
Betfair) and Sydney at 1.57.
If Adelaide get out to 1.25 they will be a bet, however
at this stage it just looks like three from three
and a big fat cheque from the bookies.
Add in the NRL package, (2 from 2) and I won't be
having a "quaffer" with dinner tomorrow
night. (the Grange can wait for another week though).
Long live Tin-head.
Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 29 March 2003 10:52 PM
To: afl_insiders@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Re: Long Live Tinhead!
Max, yes, a great start!
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 29 March 2003 10:42 PM
To: AFL Newsgroup
Subject: Long Live Tinhead!
What a fantastic start to the season!
We've followed 3 of Tinhead's predictions, avoided
Port Adelaide and did very well.
Cheers, Max.
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